Monthly Insights | Critical Minerals | January 2026

Welcome to this edition of AltaScient’s Complimentary Critical Minerals Insights, where we highlight the most consequential developments from the past month shaping supply security, processing capacity, traceability enforcement, and geopolitical leverage across critical mineral supply chains.

January’s biggest signals were clear: processed minerals are now treated as a national security trade issue; public capital is scaling into rare earths and midstream; traceability enforcement remains a near-term supply risk in concentrated jurisdictions; and a sharp silver price draw-down reinforced how market structure (margins/liquidity) can become a supply-chain-relevant shock even without a mine disruption.

Key Takeaways

• Processed minerals and derivative products are now explicitly framed as a U.S. Section 232 national security priority.

• Big-ticket public-backed capital is flowing toward rare earths, magnets, and processing - not just mining.

• Silver volatility highlighted how margin policy and liquidity constraints can amplify price moves and tighten hedging conditions.

• Traceability enforcement is tightening in dominant producer regions, creating potential near-term disruptions while raising long-term compliance.

• Strategic investment is clustering around copper and midstream capacity as core enablers of electrification and defense supply chains.

  
  

U.S. launches Section 232 action on processed critical minerals

On January 14, 2026, the White House issued a proclamation under Section 232 concluding that imports of processed critical minerals and derivative products threaten to impair U.S. national security, and directing agencies to pursue negotiations with trading partners as an initial remedy (White House; USTR).

Two market-relevant data points: the U.S. was 100% net-import reliant for 12 critical minerals and 50%+ net-import reliant for 29 more (as of 2024), and the proclamation emphasizes that processing capacity - not just mine supply - is central to supply-chain resilience.

$1.6B U.S. package accelerates rare earths and magnet manufacturing

The U.S. announced a $1.6B package for USA Rare Earth to advance rare earth development and expand magnet manufacturing capacity. Reported components include a $1.3B secured loan and $277M in proposed federal support, signaling that magnets and midstream are treated as strategic products (AP News).

Korea Zinc’s U.S. strategy: $3B of recoverable metals strengthens the midstream case

Korea Zinc highlighted that its U.S. smelter site contains roughly 600,000 tons of waste material with recoverable metals estimated at more than $3B, potentially processable over 6-7 years. This strengthens the broader $7.4B U.S. expansion narrative by improving near-term feed stock and byproduct economics (including germanium) (Mining.com).

Silver volatility shock: margins and liquidity become a critical-minerals risk signal

Late in the month, silver futures experienced an outsized one-day selloff (reported at roughly 31% in one session), underscoring how positioning and liquidity constraints can dominate near-term pricing. (Barron's).

CME shifted precious-metals margins to a percentage-of-contract-value methodology (effective Jan 13), and then raised gold and silver margins again after the plunge. (Kitco (methodology); Economic Times (margin hike)).

Why it matters for critical minerals: silver is on the U.S. 2025 List of Critical Minerals and is used in electrical circuits, batteries, and solar cells - so dislocations that tighten hedging conditions can transmit to project economics and offtake terms. (USGS list (Silver use cases)).

AltaScient's perspective:

• This looks like a market-structure event as much as a fundamentals move: margin mechanics can force de-risking and accelerate draw-downs.

• In the near term, expect higher volatility and tighter liquidity around futures-linked pricing while collateral requirements remain elevated.

• For downstream buyers, this is a reminder that financial conditions (not just mine supply) can change quickly - and should be monitored alongside traceability and processing capacity.

Copper: Mitsubishi closes $600M strategic investment in Hudbay’s Copper World (Arizona)

Hudbay confirmed closing a $600M strategic investment from Mitsubishi for a 30% joint venture interest in the fully-permitted Copper World project in Arizona. The structure includes approximately $420M at closing with an additional $180M payable within 18 months (Hudbay press release).

For broader markets, this signals strategic buyers are placing real capital behind U.S.-based copper scale - a critical enabler for grid buildout, electrification, industrial resilience.

DRC traceability enforcement remains a live supply risk for cobalt and copper

The DRC’s late-December decree to halt artisanal copper and cobalt processing until operators can certify mineral origin remains a live risk factor. Because the DRC is a dominant global supplier (roughly ~70% of global cobalt output), enforcement-driven shutdowns can affect availability, pricing, compliance-driven sourcing decisions (Reuters via Kitco).

EU CRMA: strategic projects pipeline advances (January 15 cut-off)

The European Commission’s second cut-off date for applications for CRMA strategic projects closed on January 15, 2026, reinforcing the EU push to expand capacity across extraction, processing, recycling. The next wave of designations will indicate where European capacity is being built (European Commission).

Important Highlights (January 2026)

• Section 232 proclamation: processed minerals elevated to trade + national security.

• $1.6B federal-backed rare earths + magnets: midstream/manufacturing prioritized.

• Silver draw-down (~31%): margin methodology + margin hikes tightened hedging/liquidity conditions.

• $600M Mitsubishi-Hudbay copper deal: major strategic capital into permitted U.S. copper.

• More than $3B recoverable metals signal (Korea Zinc): near-term feed stock strengthens processing economics.

• DRC traceability enforcement: proof-of-origin requirements can disrupt supply.

• EU CRMA strategic projects cut-off: pipeline signals upcoming capacity decisions.