Monthly Insights | Semiconductors | November – December 2025
- Antonio Cardenas
- 13 minutes ago
- 2 min read
Welcome to this edition of AltaScient’s Semiconductors Monthly Insights, where we examine the supply-chain disruptions, pricing signals, and policy actions shaping global semiconductor markets.
Key Takeaways
Memory markets remain structurally tight, with AI and HBM demand reshaping capacity allocation.
Geopolitical and corporate governance decisions are increasingly causing supply disruptions, impacting both downstream and the enterprises.
Investment scale is unprecedented, but execution risks will determine production and sourcing impact.
Legacy-node trade policy continues to inject uncertainty into automotive and industrial value chains. November and December 2025 reinforced a familiar—but increasingly structural—pattern in semiconductors: demand is accelerating faster than supply flexibility for some chip segments, while geopolitics and governance decisions are emerging as primary drivers of supply and enterprise risk. Memory markets, in particular, continued to tighten as AI-driven demand absorbed capacity, even as large-scale investment announcements expanded.
Memory Pricing Signals Point to Sustained Tightness
Throughout November and December, memory spot pricing continued to trend upward as reported by Trendforce. In November, DRAM chip spot prices surpassed module prices—an early signal that module pricing often follows—while NAND wafer spot prices recorded sharp weekly increases. Mid-December updates confirmed that price momentum persisted across multiple DDR4 and DDR5 products.
These signals were reinforced by corporate commentary. Micron indicated that memory tightness is expected to persist beyond 2026, driven largely by AI workloads and high-bandwidth memory (HBM) production absorbing disproportionate wafer capacity.
For downstream OEMs, the message is clear: memory pricing pressure is no longer a short-term fluctuation, but a structural feature of the current demand cycle.
U.S. Semiconductor Investment Announcements Surpass $630B
In early December, the Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA) updated its tracker showing over $630 billion in announced U.S. semiconductor supply-chain investments, spanning more than 140 projects across 28 states. These announcements reflect the scale of industrial policy efforts to re-shore and diversify semiconductor manufacturing.
However, announcements do not automatically translate into usable capacity. Permitting timelines, workforce constraints, equipment availability, and yield ramp challenges will determine how much of this capital ultimately comes online—for advanced logic and memory nodes and for legacy nodes.
As a result, near-term supply conditions remain tight even as long-term capacity expansion accelerates.
Governance Disputes Trigger Localized Supply Shifts
In December, Reuters reported that Nexperia’s China unit secured local silicon wafer suppliers for 2026 production after supplies from its Dutch parent were halted amid a governance dispute. While the issue was corporate in nature, its implications were supply-chain wide.
The episode highlights how governance and geopolitical considerations can rapidly translate into material shortages, particularly for automotive and industrial semiconductors reliant on mature-node or legacy wafers. Localization strategies, once framed as long-term risk mitigation, are increasingly becoming short-term operational necessities.
Trade Policy Uncertainty Extends for Legacy Chips (Reuters / FT)
U.S. authorities announced plans to impose tariffs on Chinese semiconductors following a Section 301 investigation into legacy-chip trade practices. While implementation was delayed until at least June 2027, the announcement extended uncertainty for sectors heavily dependent on mature-node imports.
The delayed timeline offers temporary relief but reinforces a broader trend: policy uncertainty itself is now a persistent risk factor in semiconductor sourcing and pricing decisions.