Weekly Insights: Critical Minerals and Global Supply Chains

AltaScient
Sep 9
3 min read

Welcome to this week’s edition of AltaScient’s Complimentary Critical Minerals Insights, where we highlight the latest developments shaping supply security, trade policy, and market dynamics in critical minerals.

Outlook

This week’s developments reinforce a central theme: critical minerals remain at the heart of economic security and technological leadership. From Copper price swings to rare earth supply risks and shifting export controls, the global landscape is being reshaped by policy choices and industrial demand. At AltaScient, we provide the data and analytics and insights to help organizations identify and navigate these complex dynamics continuously.

1. Semiconductors and Rare Earths: A Strategic Trade Balancer

A potential “chips-for-rare-earths” exchange is being discussed as a stabilizing mechanism in U.S.-China trade tensions, highlighting how advanced semiconductors and critical minerals are increasingly interlinked in global strategy. Still, overcoming financial and environmental hurdles to build non-Chinese supply will be a long process, especially as China’s pricing power allows it to keep costs low and discourage new investment. To counterbalance this, Western governments may need to consider floor prices and expand funding support. The challenge is illustrated by Australia’s Lynas Rare Earths, which recently reported a 90% drop in net profit due to expansion costs and weaker production, raising A$750 million in new equity to stay on course.

2. Copper Prices Surge on Strong China Data

Coper hit a one-month high this week, driven by strong Chinese factory activity and a weaker U.S. dollar, reinforcing the metal’s importance as a global economic barometer. The rally highlights renewed optimism around industrial demand, particularly as China ramps up infrastructure spending. Sustained momentum could tighten supply chains further into the fall.

3. Europe Eyes Copper Scrap Security

Germany is urging the EU to curb China’s aggressive copper scrap purchases, warning that unchecked flows could undermine Europe’s own supply security. This reflects growing concern in Europe about maintaining access to essential industrial materials.

4. U.S. Tightens Controls on TSMC’s China Operations

The U.S. has revoked TSMC’s “fast track” export status for China, meaning future shipments of U.S.-origin chipmaking tools to TSMC’s Nanjing site will now require individual licenses. The change removes a fast track export privilege known as Validated End User (VEU) status, effective December 31, 2025. The move heightens restrictions on advanced chip flows and adds new friction to the global semiconductor supply chain. In the past the U.S. took actions to revoke the same designations for China facilities owned by Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix.

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