Weekly Insights: Critical Minerals - October 15, 2025

Welcome to this week’s edition of AltaScient’s Complimentary Critical Minerals Insights, where we highlight the latest developments shaping supply security, trade policy, and market dynamics.

As we projected in May 2025, licensing, inconsistencies, and approval delays are causing operational issues for sectors including automotive. Investment and export control announcements are creating high volatility in stock market. Cobalt ban turns to quotas and Li reserves are going up - similar trends were anticipated due to EV market stagnation.

Auto Industry Raises the Alarm as China Tightens Export Rules for Rare Earths (CNBC):

Global automakers are voicing growing concern as China’s new export restrictions on rare earths begin to slow the flow of critical materials. These metals are essential for high-performance magnets used in electric vehicle motors, and the delays in export licensing are now starting to ripple through supply chains. German auto association VDA and others warn that approval bottlenecks could soon force production slowdowns. The development underscores the growing fragility of the global supply chain, particularly for EV components still heavily dependent on Chinese processing capacity. 

U.S. Blasts China as ‘Unreliable’ as Trade Tensions Mount (Yahoo Finance):

In Washington, senior U.S officials are taking aim at Beijing's increasingly unpredictable trade behavior. Recent weeks have seen China tighten controls over a range of strategic exports, from rare earths to graphite. Prompting the U.S. to label China an “unreliable partner” in global commerce. Policymakers warn that the shifting rules are undermining supply chain stability just as Western economies ramp up their green manufacturing ambitions.

Rare Earth Stocks Surge On JPMorgan’s $1.5 Trillion U.S. Investment Pledge (Forbes):

Amid the growing supply chain unease, JPMorgan has stepped in with a major signal of long-term support. The bank announced a $1.5 trillion investment initiative over the next decade aimed at strengthening U.S. industrial resilience, with a focus on rare earths, clean energy, and advanced manufacturing. The move triggered a sharp rally in rare earth and critical mineral stocks, as investors bet on an extended cycle of industrial policy and public-private capital flows. The plan reinforces how national security and industrial strategy are increasingly converging in financial markets.

Trump Announces New 100% Tariff on Chinese Imports, After Stock Market Sell-Off (ABC News):

In a dramatic policy turn, former President Donald Trump announced a proposed 100% tariff on all Chinese imports, following a market downturn and renewed tensions over export controls. The move, if enacted, would mark one of the most aggressive trade escalations in modern U.S.–China relations. Analysts say the measure could severely impact industries reliant on Chinese inputs, especially critical minerals, EV components, and electronics. Potentially accelerating the ongoing realignment of supply chains away from China. Markets reacted sharply, with investors bracing for a new round of volatility.

Congo to Replace Cobalt Export Ban with Quotas from Oct 16; Breachers Face Permanent Ban (Reuters):

In the Democratic Republic of Congo which is the world’s largest cobalt producer, President Félix Tshisekedi has unveiled a new export quota system set to replace the country’s previous blanket ban. Starting October 16, companies will be allowed to export cobalt within assigned quotas, but any breach could result in permanent bans. The new system aims to tighten oversight and ensure greater domestic value capture while maintaining the flow of this vital battery metal to global markets. Analysts say the shift could stabilize supply after months of uncertainty, though enforcement will be closely watched.

Core Lithium Sees Large Increase in Lithium Reserves (Discovery Alert):

On the upstream side, Core Lithium announced a major boost to its lithium reserves at the Finniss project in Australia. The updated resource estimate significantly enhances the company’s production outlook and positions it more favorably within the rapidly growing EV supply chain. With lithium prices stabilizing and demand forecasts still strong, the discovery offers a rare bright spot in a market otherwise dominated by geopolitical tension and regulatory uncertainty. Industry observers see this as another sign that new supply is slowly catching up to surging global demand for battery materials.

Copyright © 2025 AltaScient LLC. All rights reserved.

Disclaimer:

The content in this report is intended for informational purposes only. Authors or their companies provide no endorsement and make no representations as to accuracy, completeness, or validity of any information or content on, distributed through or downloaded, or accessed for this article. All rights and credit go to original content owners from various sources. No copyright infringement is intended. Authors or their companies will not be liable for any errors, omissions, or delays in this information or any losses, injuries, or damage arising from its display or use. All information is provided on an as-is basis without any obligation to make improvements or to correct errors or omissions. Authors or their companies make no guarantees or promises regarding the sources and do not necessarily endorse or approve of their content. Please contact us with any questions. https://www.altascient.com.